• Bitcoin’s Time Analysis & Significance of August 11th, 2017

    When I started being a content creator in the Crypto Space over 3 years ago, all my articles were being published on CoinTelegraph (besides this website) and I decided to do a different kind of analysis on August 31st, 2014. The Article was titled “Intro to Time” and it had one of my favorite art covers to date:

    The article also featured the table above with key dates in the life-cycle of Bitcoin and while I myself did not take the Mid June 2015 date seriously, I do not plan to make the same mistake again Mid August 2017.

    Background:
    I have been a fan of Martin Armstrong’s work for a long time and even attended several WEC conferences over the last few years. I give him lots of credit for helping me understand Global Economics, Capital Flows and the concept of time being Cyclical and NOT linear. So just as a thought experiment, I decided to apply the most basic idea from Martin’s writing to Bitcoin. this concept that since time is cyclical we can represent the number Pi in terms of days (or years) and apply it to get some useful dates to keep an eye on in the future.

    The Math:
    In it’s most basic form, taking the number Pi = 3.1416 and giving it a multiplier of 1000 = 3,141.6 days. Converting this number to years by dividing it by 365.25 = 8.6012 years.
    NOTE: I used 8.61 years in the original article as I divided by 365 instead
    So at this point 8.6 years represents one full cycle and the most critical day for Bitcoin going forward (more on this later). We can also consider multiples of this day as slightly less significant, which is why in the 2014 article I was looking at half and quarter cycles to find dates of significance to keep an eye on (more on this later as well)
    This cycle needs to be applied from some starting point. While several options were available like Publication of the Bitcoin White Paper and the first popular financial transaction giving Bitcoin a price, the most logical one seemed to be the generation of the Genesis Block on January 3rd 19:05:05 UTC Time.

    NOTE: At this point I would like to thank Mark B for providing a Python script in order to remove all rounding errors when determining the date. The code will be at the bottom of the articles for those interested in running it on your own.

    Using this code we are provided with a a key date August 11th, 2017 which is exactly 8.6012 years from the Genesis Block. This was the date I was referencing as “Something Big” on 2017.62 in the Original Article back in 2014.

    Significance:
    Back in August 2014 the price of bitcoin was around $500 coming down from the $1200 all time high but rising from the low in the $300’s it made 3 month’s prior. It was impossible to tell if the next 3/4 cycle due to arrive on June 16th 2015 was going to coincide with a price low or a high. As the year 2015 began, it was much more clear that it was going to be a low. That January I did an interview with Jeff Berwick of Anarchast Podcast and I explained how the price point of $160 that Bitcoin fell to just a few weeks prior met my bearish target, but it came 6 months too early and I was hopping to see that price in the summer time instead to meet the June 16 key date. In that video I also talked about how Europe will be the driving force to put Bitcoin back in the spotlight with their Bank closures. While I knew that Greece was the one in big financial trouble, and I focused on Greece a month later when presenting at Jeff Berwick’s Anarchapulco Conference, during the interview I talked about Italy as the example. To this day I credit the change in Bitcoin price trend from an 18 month Bear Market to a Bull Market to have taken place in June 2015. Here is a June 16th Reuters headline “Bitcoin surges as Grexit worries mount” before the inevitable banking shutdown on Sunday June 28th 2015.

    I never took the June 16th, 2015 date seriously at the time and after I missed my perfect entry to load up on Bitcoin in the $100-250 price range, I swore I would not ignore the next critical date (now 1 month away at time of writing) and this date is set to be way more significant as it’s a full cycle vs quarter cycle like the last one. After the June 2015 period was clearly a low, I spent the last two years talking about how Bitcoin should reach its price high in August 2017. But just like in 2015 where the low came a few months early we potentially had the high come a few months early as well as bitcoin has now pulled back almost 25% from its all time high of just under $3,000 first week of June. Bitcoin moves quickly and with the SegWit2x vs UASF resolutions, there is still plenty of unknowns between now and inevitable dates in August that will shape the Bitcoin ecosystem for years to come:

    Possible Outcomes:
    So assuming that this date is actually significant, what are some of the things to expect from knowing it. At this point it must be pointed out that while this type of time analysis has occasionally been able to identify price highs or low to the day (Feb 27th, 2007), it does not necessarily have to coincide with a price reversal. In fact, if it always coincided with a price reversal (assuming these dates are even useful), everyone would have been a billionaire trader long ago.
    A. Market becomes very optimistic on Bitcoin scaling into Aug 11th: This outcome is starting to seem unlikely. When the price was rising between April & June it looked like there was nothing stopping it and SegWit activation via UASF was going to be a sell event from the $3,000-$4,000 price range making August 11th (or near there) a price high.
    B. Market becomes very pessimistic on Bitcoin scaling into Aug 11th: This outcome is starting to become more likely. If SegWit2x continues to be a clown show shacking market confidence, we could see continued price drops into uncertainty and a potential price low as SegWit Activates 1st week of August bringing back set confidence. In this case price could reverse around Aug 11th from a range of $1,200 – $1,800 setting off a new Bull Run to the next key cycle date in 2.15 years (or at least till the Hard Fork drums of SegWit2x start beating)
    C. Price is NOT trending into first week of August and remains choppy: In this case we will be looking for this date to correspond to some kind of resolution on SegWit. It may be when the Ecosystem realizes UASF has succeeded or the day people like me admit defeat of the movement. It might be a day on which SegWit2x causes an accidental Hard Fork making Bitcoin Unusable, the day UASF side of the Chain Split gets a PoW change, or some other critical event. In either case, events on or around this date will shape the future trend of Bitcoin (from adoption to price in either direction) just like the Greek Banking Shutdown did around the last key date.
     D. This is all nonsense and completely irrelevant: Yes, I am fully aware that this sounds like an Astrological reading of the Bitcoin horoscope.

    Errors:
    At this time I would like knowledge the fact that this is completely speculative and i’m not really using Martin Armstrong’s supper computer for date generations. The math could be very different when done by a professional. In addition, the dates in questions would have been different if way we used the publication of the White Paper Instead…. I wonder if it would have fell on August 1st :).

    Here is the python code thanks to a loyal followers of my content, enjoy:

    ———————————————————————————————–
    import time
    import datetime
    from math import pi
    genesis_datetime = ‘2009-01-03 19:15:05’
    date_fmt = ‘%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S’
    seconds_in_a_day = 60 * 60 * 24
    cyclic_period_seconds = 1000 * pi * seconds_in_a_day
    def date2epoch(date_str):
        return time.mktime(datetime.datetime.strptime(date_str, date_fmt).timetuple())
    def epoch2date(epoch_time):
        return time.strftime(date_fmt, time.localtime(epoch_time))
    genesis_timestamp = date2epoch(genesis_datetime)
    print(‘Cyclic period (days): %s’ % (cyclic_period_seconds / seconds_in_a_day))
    print(‘Genesis: %s’ % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp))
    print(‘One cyclic period after genesis: %s’ % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + cyclic_period_seconds))
    print(‘Two cyclic periods after genesis: %s’ % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + 2 * cyclic_period_seconds))
    print(“—-“)
    for i in range(0, 41):
        frac = i / 4.0   # break down into quarter cycles
        print(“[%s + %s cycles]: %s” % (epoch2date(genesis_timestamp), frac, epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + frac * cyclic_period_seconds)))

    PS: my comments on this website are disable due to my inability to deal with spam on this medium. Please leave any comments on Twitter or YouTube:

    Tone Vays – Blockchain/Bitcoin Consultant & Traditional Derivatives Trader


  • WCN Bitcoin Group #149 – “Satoshi” Speaks – Alphabay Down – $50M Fund – $55,000 Bitcoin

    July 7th from NYC: On this episode we are joined by Kyle Torpey who has not joined in a while. Here is the TL;DR
    0:01:00 – Fake Satoshi’s Speech: There was a crazy presentation by Craig Wright that is a must watch. He clearly want to centralize bitcoin so that a few people control the protocol and you need a $20,000 node to maintain the history of transactions. His presentation will go a long way in helping UASF and activating segwit sooner than later.
    0:16:30 – Erik Voorhees Thinks Bitcoin Can Be Replaced: I’m not sure if Erik is clueless when it comes to bitcoin scaling or pushing an agenda to help his business. I see a big problem with him agreeing to run SegWit2x code before he even knew who was going to program that code.
    0:39:00 – Alphabay Goes Down: For a about a day, the most popular dark net market site went down. Since they are back, I do not believe they will be exit scamming any time soon.
    0:55:00 – Bain Manager Launches $50 Million Bitcoin and Ethereum Fund: This is crazy, I understand that people cannot hold bitcoin themselves and need to have someone do it for them. However, he plans to buy nonsense like Ethereum, Ripple and Dash. There is obviously risk with having someone else hold your keys but actively trading bitcoin and especially actively trading or holding Alts will never outperform Bitcoin on the long term.
    1:17:00 – Wall Street strategist weighs in on bitcoin, sees it worth as much as $55,000: The article does not provide much detail as to where the value comes from and is also lacking details as to why Bitcoin will replace gold…. I explain why.


  • WCN Bitcoin Group #148 – Who Controls Bitcoin? – Vitalik is Not Dead – Mark Cuban Hypocrite?

    Posted on by Tone

    June 30th from NYC: The first topic here is a must. Here is the TL;DR
    0:01:00 – SegWit2x Beta Is Released: I strongly encourage everyone to watch the recent interview with Eric Lombrozo where he explains the situation perfectly. The miners were allowed the privilege of smoothly activation SegWit which Core Dev’s though was not controversial, but instead this has turned in a clown voting show. UASF will activate and any Miner that does not get on board will feel the financial loss of that poor choice. SegWit2x is nonsense as explained by Luke Dash Jr. and no responsible company should even consider running this garbage. Nothing good can come from running SegWit2x it is a way to disrespect the Core Developers and tell them that they are no longer needed. This can cause a long term confidence loss in the entire crypto space.
    0:38:00 – Vitalik of Ethereum is NOT Dead: This was a silly fake news article. There are several problems here however. One of them is that you should not have a leader that could be used for this kind of a hoax. Also Vitalik tweeting out a picture with the latest Block Hash is not a use case for a Blockchain which makes me question his knowledge of Blockchains. Blake and I also explain the concept of a Bus Test in traditional industries.
    0:51:00 – Mark Cuban Hypocrite: I take a some big shots at Mark Cuban. First he falsely believe that Bitcoin’s 2x rise this year is a bubble yet Ethereum’s 20x rise not since he is about to do a Scam ICO on it. I also trolled him on twitter of that. Mark is NOT an expert at what a Blockchain is and he really needs to start getting some better advice.


  • WCN Bitcoin Group #147 – Segwit2X – ETH Flash Crash – Status & Civic – Coinbase & Cryptsy

    Posted on by Tone

    June 23rd from NYC: The SegWit2x code is on the verge of release and the discussions are serious. Theo was a little tipsy but being late night in Germany let’s give him a break. Here is the TL;DR
    0:01:00 – SegWit2x: With SegWit2x Beta about to come out, we already have over 80% of miners signaling for this mess. But we still have lots of issues, SegWit2x is totally untested and potentially dangerous. So you have to be crazy to run that code even if it’s for a short time to get SegWit and then switch back. The only way to get out of this mess to either immediately run BIP141 to lock in SegWit with 95% consensus, or get core devs to apply BIP91 with 80% consensus to get SegWit before Aug 1st. There is a possibility of running SegWit2x for a month and then switch back but do you really want to risk the future of the Bitcoin Network on this untested piece of junk. We will soon find out.
    0:16:00 – Ethereum Flash Crashed to 10 Cents After a $30M Market Sell Order: This was a crazy event and it continues to Show how amateurish the crypto exchanges are. The fault here is clearly with GDAX for screwing this up.
    0:54:30 – Latest ICO’s are Breaking the Ethereum Blockchain: This is just starting, Ethereum cannot technologically scale and i’m not surprised all these new projects are breaking Ethereum’s back. The Civic ICO is not different. I go on a minor rant about how bad Ethereum is.
    1:14:00 – Coinbase Appeals Decision in Cryptsy Case: I had to run and was not there for this story.


  • WCN Bitcoin Group #146 – UAHF – Price Tumbles – Coinbase Freeze – Dennis Rodman

    June 16th, 2017 from NYC: It good having John Light on the show, he might be one of the most confident people in the space that we will have SegWit on Aug 1st without any trouble. Here is the TL:DR:
    0:01:00 – UAHF Announced by Bitmain: In my view, what Bitmain announced is crazy. The only bright side coming out of it is that SegWit2x will now try to be compatible with BIP141 and attempt to avoid things on Aug 1st. It is pretty clear Bitmain is causing all of this trouble. I talk about the Game Theory involved between these Industry players Signaling SegWit2x vs actually running the Code.
    0:36:00 – Bitcoin Price Tumbles Most in Two Years: The price crashed on Bitmain’s news but I believe we have bounced and should start to go back up.
    0:46:00 – Coinbase Disables Account of Ross Ulbricht Legal Campaign: I am not surprised at all that Coinbase has done something else unreasonably dumb.
    0:57:00 – Dennis Rodman is back in North Korea: This came up only because before Rodman went out to NK, he did some promos wearing a PodCoin Shirt. To be honest, I don’t really care much about this story.
    BONUS: My story of the week is the recent introduction to pass a bill that declares War on Cash/Bitcoin.


  • Mad Bitcoins – UAHF vs UASF – Bitmain’s Contingency Plan (w/ Jimmy Song)

    Recorded Jun 14th, 2017: This was a huge day. Right after I went to bed the night before Bitmain released a post for their contingency plan to Hard Fork Bitcoin on August 1st. It Immediately called a crash in the market taking Bitcoin down over $500 over the following 48 hours. The moment I found out about the news, I immediately went live to break down the article which you can watch below:

    Jimmy Song wrote an article on the subject and we then both got on the Mad Bitcoin YouTube Channel to discuss the situation over this potential Hard Fork.


  • Mad Bitcoins – Bitcoin Price Drops from $3000 to $2500

    Recorded Jun 12th, 2017: This was a spur of the moment live stream in light of the Price Drop. We fell to $2,500 way too quickly and even though it can bounce here, a much stronger bounce would occur in the $2,150 range. I explain it all in the video so please check it out. I also go on an Ethereum Rant, but that’s nothing new. We also get into the Bancor ICO Scam.


  • WCN Bitcoin Group #145 – UASF, Putin, Ethereum, Singapore and the Bitcoin Bubble

    June 9th from PA Cabin: This was a pretty cool episode where I got to relax a little in the hammock while having a beer :). Here is the TL:DR
    0:01:00 – UASF is Gaining Momentum: I take the position that UASF will succeed. I think that economic nodes are starting to realize how dangerous it is to ignore BIP148. We need to keep the pressure on.
    0:32:30 – AMD Shares Are Surging on Crypto Mining Demand: It’s nice to see a real company get involved in this space.
    0:51:00 – Ethereum in Russia & Singapore: These stories are painful. The Russian one make no sense as Putin obviously would not want a competing uncontrolled currency. As for Singapore, they should be smart enough to not touch the ETH token with a 10 foot poll.
    1:07:00 – Bitcoin Bubble: The price of Bitcoin is high but higher prices are probably coming. With potential issue on Aug 1st, people might take their coins off the exchange and hence contract the supply of bitcoin. I describe this dynamic in detail.
    BONUS: I now accept Litecoin Donations 🙂