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  • Tone Vays (Bitcoin) vs. Aaron Koenig (Alt/ICO) Debate – Munich

    Published 9/19/17

    Bitcoin Meetup – Munich https://www.meetup.com/Bitcoin-Munich..

    Tone Vays and Aaron Koenig in Munich — two legends of the space talk about their main fields of activity. We’ll learn about the Austrian School of Economics, which has seen a significant revival with the emergence of Bitcoin, and about certain intricacies of Bitcoin trading, its price history and the actual impact on the global economy it may already have. And while Tone and Aaron share very similar political views as big proponents of economic and social liberty, they have very different opinions on the sense or nonsense of various altcoins. So let’s seize this opportunity and dig a little bit deeper here in the second part of the evening. Both speakers are independently travelling through Europe for conferences and meetups, but nowhere else they’ll be confronted with each other like here in Munich.

    37:19 – 1:26  – Tone Vays starts his presentation and breaks down the history, politics and evolution of Bitcoin and his perspective on ICO’s and altcoins. Tone also goes into depth about Bitcoin Price Speculation and Economic Significance.


  • CNBC Cryptotrader Show, South Africa – Are we in a Crypto ICO Bubble?

    Published 9/29/17

    Tone appears on South Africa’s “CNBC CRYPTOTRADER SHOW” to discuss the ever so common question, “Are we in a Crypto Bubble?”

    5:19 – 10:23  – Tone Vays responds to the question, “Are we in a Crypto Bubble” and talks about the recent hard fork, segwit, the China Ban and ICO’s. Tone also makes a Bitcoin price prediction for 1/1/18.


  • Bitcoin’s Time Analysis & Significance of August 11th, 2017

    When I started being a content creator in the Crypto Space over 3 years ago, all my articles were being published on CoinTelegraph (besides this website) and I decided to do a different kind of analysis on August 31st, 2014. The Article was titled “Intro to Time” and it had one of my favorite art covers to date:

    The article also featured the table above with key dates in the life-cycle of Bitcoin and while I myself did not take the Mid June 2015 date seriously, I do not plan to make the same mistake again Mid August 2017.

    Background:
    I have been a fan of Martin Armstrong’s work for a long time and even attended several WEC conferences over the last few years. I give him lots of credit for helping me understand Global Economics, Capital Flows and the concept of time being Cyclical and NOT linear. So just as a thought experiment, I decided to apply the most basic idea from Martin’s writing to Bitcoin. this concept that since time is cyclical we can represent the number Pi in terms of days (or years) and apply it to get some useful dates to keep an eye on in the future.

    The Math:
    In it’s most basic form, taking the number Pi = 3.1416 and giving it a multiplier of 1000 = 3,141.6 days. Converting this number to years by dividing it by 365.25 = 8.6012 years.
    NOTE: I used 8.61 years in the original article as I divided by 365 instead
    So at this point 8.6 years represents one full cycle and the most critical day for Bitcoin going forward (more on this later). We can also consider multiples of this day as slightly less significant, which is why in the 2014 article I was looking at half and quarter cycles to find dates of significance to keep an eye on (more on this later as well)
    This cycle needs to be applied from some starting point. While several options were available like Publication of the Bitcoin White Paper and the first popular financial transaction giving Bitcoin a price, the most logical one seemed to be the generation of the Genesis Block on January 3rd 19:05:05 UTC Time.

    NOTE: At this point I would like to thank Mark B for providing a Python script in order to remove all rounding errors when determining the date. The code will be at the bottom of the articles for those interested in running it on your own.

    Using this code we are provided with a a key date August 11th, 2017 which is exactly 8.6012 years from the Genesis Block. This was the date I was referencing as “Something Big” on 2017.62 in the Original Article back in 2014.

    Significance:
    Back in August 2014 the price of bitcoin was around $500 coming down from the $1200 all time high but rising from the low in the $300’s it made 3 month’s prior. It was impossible to tell if the next 3/4 cycle due to arrive on June 16th 2015 was going to coincide with a price low or a high. As the year 2015 began, it was much more clear that it was going to be a low. That January I did an interview with Jeff Berwick of Anarchast Podcast and I explained how the price point of $160 that Bitcoin fell to just a few weeks prior met my bearish target, but it came 6 months too early and I was hopping to see that price in the summer time instead to meet the June 16 key date. In that video I also talked about how Europe will be the driving force to put Bitcoin back in the spotlight with their Bank closures. While I knew that Greece was the one in big financial trouble, and I focused on Greece a month later when presenting at Jeff Berwick’s Anarchapulco Conference, during the interview I talked about Italy as the example. To this day I credit the change in Bitcoin price trend from an 18 month Bear Market to a Bull Market to have taken place in June 2015. Here is a June 16th Reuters headline “Bitcoin surges as Grexit worries mount” before the inevitable banking shutdown on Sunday June 28th 2015.

    I never took the June 16th, 2015 date seriously at the time and after I missed my perfect entry to load up on Bitcoin in the $100-250 price range, I swore I would not ignore the next critical date (now 1 month away at time of writing) and this date is set to be way more significant as it’s a full cycle vs quarter cycle like the last one. After the June 2015 period was clearly a low, I spent the last two years talking about how Bitcoin should reach its price high in August 2017. But just like in 2015 where the low came a few months early we potentially had the high come a few months early as well as bitcoin has now pulled back almost 25% from its all time high of just under $3,000 first week of June. Bitcoin moves quickly and with the SegWit2x vs UASF resolutions, there is still plenty of unknowns between now and inevitable dates in August that will shape the Bitcoin ecosystem for years to come:

    Possible Outcomes:
    So assuming that this date is actually significant, what are some of the things to expect from knowing it. At this point it must be pointed out that while this type of time analysis has occasionally been able to identify price highs or low to the day (Feb 27th, 2007), it does not necessarily have to coincide with a price reversal. In fact, if it always coincided with a price reversal (assuming these dates are even useful), everyone would have been a billionaire trader long ago.
    A. Market becomes very optimistic on Bitcoin scaling into Aug 11th: This outcome is starting to seem unlikely. When the price was rising between April & June it looked like there was nothing stopping it and SegWit activation via UASF was going to be a sell event from the $3,000-$4,000 price range making August 11th (or near there) a price high.
    B. Market becomes very pessimistic on Bitcoin scaling into Aug 11th: This outcome is starting to become more likely. If SegWit2x continues to be a clown show shacking market confidence, we could see continued price drops into uncertainty and a potential price low as SegWit Activates 1st week of August bringing back set confidence. In this case price could reverse around Aug 11th from a range of $1,200 – $1,800 setting off a new Bull Run to the next key cycle date in 2.15 years (or at least till the Hard Fork drums of SegWit2x start beating)
    C. Price is NOT trending into first week of August and remains choppy: In this case we will be looking for this date to correspond to some kind of resolution on SegWit. It may be when the Ecosystem realizes UASF has succeeded or the day people like me admit defeat of the movement. It might be a day on which SegWit2x causes an accidental Hard Fork making Bitcoin Unusable, the day UASF side of the Chain Split gets a PoW change, or some other critical event. In either case, events on or around this date will shape the future trend of Bitcoin (from adoption to price in either direction) just like the Greek Banking Shutdown did around the last key date.
     D. This is all nonsense and completely irrelevant: Yes, I am fully aware that this sounds like an Astrological reading of the Bitcoin horoscope.

    Errors:
    At this time I would like knowledge the fact that this is completely speculative and i’m not really using Martin Armstrong’s supper computer for date generations. The math could be very different when done by a professional. In addition, the dates in questions would have been different if way we used the publication of the White Paper Instead…. I wonder if it would have fell on August 1st :).

    Here is the python code thanks to a loyal followers of my content, enjoy:

    ———————————————————————————————–
    import time
    import datetime
    from math import pi
    genesis_datetime = ‘2009-01-03 19:15:05’
    date_fmt = ‘%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S’
    seconds_in_a_day = 60 * 60 * 24
    cyclic_period_seconds = 1000 * pi * seconds_in_a_day
    def date2epoch(date_str):
        return time.mktime(datetime.datetime.strptime(date_str, date_fmt).timetuple())
    def epoch2date(epoch_time):
        return time.strftime(date_fmt, time.localtime(epoch_time))
    genesis_timestamp = date2epoch(genesis_datetime)
    print(‘Cyclic period (days): %s’ % (cyclic_period_seconds / seconds_in_a_day))
    print(‘Genesis: %s’ % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp))
    print(‘One cyclic period after genesis: %s’ % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + cyclic_period_seconds))
    print(‘Two cyclic periods after genesis: %s’ % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + 2 * cyclic_period_seconds))
    print(“—-“)
    for i in range(0, 41):
        frac = i / 4.0   # break down into quarter cycles
        print(“[%s + %s cycles]: %s” % (epoch2date(genesis_timestamp), frac, epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + frac * cyclic_period_seconds)))

    PS: my comments on this website are disable due to my inability to deal with spam on this medium. Please leave any comments on Twitter or YouTube:

    Tone Vays – Blockchain/Bitcoin Consultant & Traditional Derivatives Trader


  • Bitcoin News #32 – China oversight, Bitcoin Digital Gold?, Coinbase now likes SegWit, Lightning Alpha

    January 15th from Miami: This was another on location episode from the Miami Hackathon. On this episode I was joined by a few guests starting with Alena of Satoshi Labs, Austin Alexander of Kraken & Doug of Bitstop. Here is the TLDR:
    0:00:03 – Miami Hackathon Recap: Great event, maybe I will enter the actual competition next year. My presentation on opening night should be posted to the web in the near future.
    0:12:00 – China Looking to Regulate Chinese Exchanges: I do not believe in the correlation between the Yuan & Bitcoin so when China did not devalue a lot of traders got caught on the wrong side of the trade. As the market was recovering from this event, the Chinese Regulators came in to investigate exchanges causing panic selling in addition to the fall a few days earlier. The leverage has already gone down but we are still waiting on the official words.
    0:33:00 – Bitcoin Digital Gold?: This discussion had a lot to do with Roger Ver’s recent tweet that Bitcoin should not be used as store of value but as Medium of Exchange. This once again starts a frustrating discussion which we would not be having if SegWit was adopted.
    0:57:00 – Blockchain Without the Bitcoin Hype in 2017:  I think the hype is definitely going to end and it’s probably due to people like me who have been adamant about not calling things a Blockchain when there is no PoW. (This was a long discussion and I come in at the 1:30:00)
    1:50:00 Lightning Alpha: No opinion because we need SegWit so I have no idea how it is going to be tested. The good news is that with Lightning around the corner the statements by Blockchain.info that Lightning would take years are very wrong. But without segwit there can never be any real testing other than TestNet and perhaps Litecoin.
    2:10:00 – Brian Armstrong & Coinbase now like SegWit: This is frustrating because Armstrong has been trying to fork bitcoin for years now.


  • Another Steemit Debate and My AMA on Steem

    Once again I can’t seem to leave this scam alone as it continues to bother me how they sucker in more victims. The first audio file took place on Dec 16th, 2016 in the WhalePool TeamSpeak. I did not plan to have this debate, and in fact I do not want anything to do with the Scammers Dan Larimer and Ned Scott, but they were there so we went at it. The audio is bad as the two of them were sharing a computer and there wasn’t any official moderation even though the WhalePool guys were trying. The medium for this chat was also totally new to me so I had no idea what would happen if one person talks over the other (which is what was happening and i’m probably at fault for a lot of that). Have a listen and you be the judge of how much of a scam Steemit really is. Especially the part where they admit to controlling 55% of the PoS system and ease with which they were able to change economic incentives to use the platform and still have the balls to call it a Blockchain. I have covered Steemit extensively on this blog before. If the Embeded SoundCloud does not play, click here:

    A week following the Debate with Dan & Ned, I was asked to do an AMA on Steemit, I was not going to crate a login so instead Adam Meister joins me for a video version of the AMA where live viewers get to ask me any Steemit Questions they like. I go into the details of why I dislike Dan Larimer so much, how the Steem price has only one direction DOWN and most importantly I compare & contrast Steemit to OneCoin to bring the point home of them being the same thing.


  • Bitcoin News #31 – Bitcoin Rally, Fed Rate Hike, Bitcoin in 2017

    December 19th from NYC: This turned out to be an excellent episode. A lot of the conversation revolved around General Economics as much as Bitcoin. Here is the TLDR:
    1:05 – Bitcoin Rally: We talk bitcoin price and the news that it is once again the best performing asset. The price was around $780 at time of recording and I show charts where I’m expecting a swift rally to all time highs of over $1000. I also talk about how India and Venezuela are not having that much of a direct affect on the price rise but them being in the news and richer countries taking notice is a reason for some of this rise.
    32:20 – Fed Rate Hike: We get into a long economic discussion about the Rate Hike. I do not think it has any affect on Bitcoin and very little affect on the overall economy. The Fed is like a dog chasing its tail. The market has already decided that rates need to be higher hence yields on Gov’t bonds already went up, so the Fed needs to keep up. On the flip side, one of the reasons why the rates whent up is of course due to the expectation that the Fed will raise rates hence we are back to a circular self fulfilling prophecy. I also discuss how the rise in rates should not affect stocks. We also get into the history of the Federal Reserve and I take the side that the original reason for its creation was not as conspiratorial as many think in relation to Jakyl Island. It also had a lot to do with the the 1906 San Fran Earthquake. For more on this topic please see the links in the following post from about a year ago. At the end I talk about why i’m looking for a 2-3x increase in stocks over rest of the decade.
    1:13:15 – Predictions for 2017: I am very optimistic on the price of Bitcoin into August 2017. I would like to see Netfix offer an ala-cart service via Bitcoin. I’m also not looking forward to the ETF and i also talk about why i think ICO’s will start go away and regulators will bring the hammer. I also see Bitcoin dominate the market of crypto and get back to 95% of total MCap.


  • WCN Bitcoin Group #120 – Circle No Bitcoin – Distributed Ledger Tech – ZCrash Continues – VC Hacked

     From NYC on Dec 9th: This was a great episode because I got to speak for an extra long time due to no other guests :). The topics were important. I look back into my early days of blogging with my very first articles about IRS and the mentality of Jeramie Allair which I never liked from day one. Here is the TLDR
    1. Circle Drops Bitcoin: Circle never appreciated bitcoin for what it was so this move should not be a surprise. They are saying they will continue to use Bitcoin on the back end as a settlement system which I think is not going to last for very long.
    2. DLT’s: The Fed has come out with a paper on DLT’s and it looks like they are starting to understand between the Bitcoin Blockchain and a Google Docs Blockchain. I also liked how they clearly consider TheDAO a VC fund while the community was constantly told by TheDAO architects that they are not a VC Fund.
    3. VC Fund Created to Invest in ICO Scams: I still think this might be an April Fools joke and the article got printed a little early.
    4. ZCash: I do not understand the economics of ZCash would ever create a rice in the price. What made bitcoin successful is that by the time the world found out, 50% was already in circulation and fairly distributed without a pre-mine… That kind of organic economic system is just not replicatable.
    5. VC Hacked: The details behind the Augur token hack seem strange to me and the dots are not connecting. It is also hard talking about it because I know Rep tokens are useless and unnecessary.
     


  • WCN Bitcoin Group #119 – Coinbase vs. IRS Round 2, Latin America, SFMuni Hacker

     Dec 2nd from NYC: This was a very good episode where we dive deep into important topics. Here is the TLDR:
    1. Coinbase vs IRS Round II – I continue to say “I told you so” and explain that the outrage towards Coinbase is unwarranted. Between their KYC requirements and the horrendous law IRS put on the books for Bitcoin users in the US it should have been obvious any user is assumed to be Federally guilty of Tax Evasion until they prove themselves innocent. Since the technology is not really there for any random citizen to prove themselves innocent to people that probably do not even understand how bitcoin works, ANY user of Bitcoin user who is also a US Citizen is putting himself at great legal risk. You also get what you pay for. Buying Bitcoin in the street paying a 10% premium for anonymity will greatly reduce this IRS risk vs only paying 1% from the comfort of your own home via Coinbase.
    2. Latin America – There are great reason for why bitcoin is used in Latin America, but talking about it brakes rules #1 & #2 of Fightclub. I’m disappointed & a bit worried about Rodrigo for going public. 
    http://reason.com/archives/2016/11/28/the-secret-dangerous-world-of
    http://reason.com/blog/2016/11/30/rodrigo-souza-bitcoin-venezuela-brazil
    3.  San Fran Muni Transportation System Hacked – We should all be thankful for CryptoLocker in a way, they are educating people on Internet security & why you need bitcoin. They also have a very helpful support staff that will teach you to acquire bitcoins :).
    BONUS: I make a case how mining can be sustainable and decentralized after the new bitcoin creation subsidy ends and most fees are captured by layer 2 protocols like Lightning.