• Latest Interviews with Freedoms Phoenix from HK

    Posted on by Tone

    In the latest installment of interviews with Ernie of Freedoms Phoenix, this was a great one. With a few guests joining in the action, this was a two hour convo from the heart of Asia just days before the annual Bitcoin Conference. Special thanks to Nancy (for the Cameo) and Helena for joining me most of the time for the interview… There was plenty of drinking happening before and during the show as it was tacking place 10pm to Midnight local time so some interesting discussions certainly took place.

    2015-05-12 Hour 2 Tone Vays & Elana from Brazil from Ernest Hancock on Vimeo.

    Here is the continuation of the Interview:

    2015-05-12 Hour 3 Tone Vays & Elana from Brazil from Ernest Hancock on Vimeo.


  • Interview With Freedom’s Phoenix – Texas Bitcoin Conference

    It’s been a while since I’ve been on Freedom’s Phoenix. Got a chance to hang out with Ernie and meet Donna in Anarchapulco and Texas Bitcoin Conference. Here is the link to the radio show website, was only 1 hr this time but we did run 3 minutes or so into hour 2 so for those really interest in the last words, please check out the website.

    Will be on the show again right after the New York Inside Bitcoins conference.


  • Bitcoin Price Analysis: Week of Mar 22

    In the final analysis article for CoinTelegraph a few weeks ago we concluded with the following:

    We remain bullish for the time being with an eye on our final two targets of US$300 and US$330. It always depends on how it gets there but most likely these would be good target to take some Bitcoin profits and watch the global economy unfold. There will be more Merchants coming on line but the value proposition for the consumer to use bitcoins over a credit card is not yet made. This will continue to be a burden on bitcoin’s price for the time being.

    Two additional scenarios in order of higher probabilities

    Bearish
    : The bearish alternative begins to show its signs if the price falls under US$250-255 zone. It gets some teeth under US$223 and if we fall under US$200, it will be a very depressing spring as we wait for the EU fireworks of Greece defaulting mid summer.

    Bullish
    : The primary case is already pretty bullish, but in order to start thinking about the moon, the price needs take on the 200-day SMA the same way it just did the 50-day SMA last week. Moving above the 200-day SMA, then coming back to test it in that US$330 are, opens the door for moves to US$400 and US$440, but without a full blown sovereign debt crisis and bond defaults, the odds of reaching these marks at the moment are pretty small.

    So what happened? Everything was looking great; we hit our second to last target of $300 and pulled back to $290 and then there was a major news event. News broke that one of the biggest Free-Market website – Evolution decided to run off with all the users coins, which are being estimated to be around $12 Million though others put the number over $30 Million. This caused major havoc in the price of Bitcion mostly due to fear that all those coins will hit the market for immediate sale to fiat. At the time I sent several tweets that it was an overreaction and the price should rebound back to the breakdown point of $280, but this has been taking an extended amount of time to materialize which should add some doubts for the bullish case.

    Tweet-EvoCrash_Mar19

    Market Thoughts

    As you can see in the Tweets above, an explanation of Free-Markets is probably warranted. A huge market gap opened up after the take down of Silk Road and it is now clear that users of Silk Road learned nothing from the loses they absorbed. No one should have been ruined by theft at Evolution. Every single user of that site should have been withdrawing their bitcions daily and hence minimizing the damage if the admins walked away with the bitcoins or the federal agencies confiscating them like in the Silk Road case.

    Now let’s talk about whether a Free-Market where anything is up for sale can be trusted. At the moment, you have to assume that no admin of a site like that should be, but just because you don’t trust the admin with your wealth does not mean that you can’t use it for transactions. In that case what really maters is the view of the site admin over privacy. For example, I would much rather talk over a communication medium where the creators are anonymous but believe in privacy, over using Facebook Messenger, Skype or Gmail where everything is monitored & can be reviewed by government agencies. Markets work the same way, but just like it’s not a good idea to have all your contacts, friends and pictures at some unknown websites where all your data is secured but can be lost if the website disappears, your wealth in the form of bitcoins should be treated with the same view.

    So what does this do for bitcoin’s price? At the moment what it did is kill the momentum to $330 and now the more likely long-term trend is a resumed bear market after this minor rebound takes its course.

    Market Outlook

    Here is a one-year look back with daily candles.

    Bitfinex_Daily_Mar22

    Even thought there are a few positive signs we can point to, this chart definitely looks more bearish than bullish. The $255 support line that has been in place since the start of the year held things up this week, but if it falters it will probably be a quick way down. If Bitcoin is to make new highs we should have been way above $300 by now so there is definitely significant downside to worry about at the moment.

    BitfinexDaily_Mar22

    The Zoomed in Daily chart is sitting just above the 50-day SMA but we need to close the day above it. For the first time in almost a year there was a triangle that broke in the opposite direction of expectation. We had a really good run because these triangle break as expected just 2 out 3 times and we had a streak of 7 in a row prior to that one. There is just no strength in this market, we just need more time for people to fully understand the power of bitcoin.

    BitfinexHourly_Mar22

    The Hourly chart that is usually profiled on Twitter (@Tone_LLT) has been pretty messy the last few days. It broke down from the $260 range showing all indications of a collapse in prices but has since rebounded above $270 indicating that it’s ready to retrace the panic selling from last week.

    Conclusion:

    Bitcoin’s overall trend is turning bearish though it may have some legs to make it back to $280 and at most back to $300. The $330 target we had before is definitely off the table for the time being. Pretty soon expect the price to dip back down and approach $200. There is some support around $255 but it most likely does not have the power to hold up the price much longer if we go back down to it.

    Reference Point: Sunday Mar 22 11 pm ET, Bitfinex Price US$270

    Disclaimer: The price projections above are just opinions of one trader. It is meant as a guide or fresh look on some of the reader’s personal views on bitcoin. Trading in general (but especially Bitcoin) is incredibly risky and should only be done with capital one can afford to lose.


  • Tone on the DonkDown Podcast

    Back in October had a great conversation with Bryan Micon of DonkDown Radio, here is the link to the site:

    http://www.donkdown.com/tone-on-donkdown-radio/

    —from Bryan—
    Tone came on the show. Interesting convo IMO, mostly bitcoin, also trading, Bear Sterns, Fiat trashing, and moar. I compare DPB to ISIS, and he has no defense, as he would stone the hot lesbians in the scene I set for him. I’m going to add in the word “Fappening” to this post, purely for SEO purposes, nothing about that was actually discussed on the show, and I wanted this story just a bit longer to fill the page properly. There, that’s about enough. I don’t have a boss.
    ———-


  • State of Bitcoin Week of Sep 8th

    This overview was originally written for HitBTC and can be found here: https://hitbtc.com/market-analytics

    General Overview

    Bitcoin is going through a bit of a tough stretch at the moment. Merchants are starting to see the benefits faster than consumers, who still don’t see a need for instantaneous cheap transactions that will protect their identity if it comes at a cost of them being more responsible. This responsibility involves memorizing passwords, backing up computer files, and learning new technology, which can be a bit more complicated than just browsing the Internet and reading email. This trend would need to reverse for Bitcoin to have a chance at mass adoptions. Unlike other technology in recent times like Facebook and twitter, Bitcoin’s mass adoption is directly proportional to its price since there is a limited number of bitcoins in the world.

    At the moment this price is experiencing numerous downward pressures. Companies like Overstock are trying to relieve some of this pressure by paying their employees in bitcoin and perhaps they will also be able to convince their suppliers to accept the new asset class as payment, but for now the majority of these merchants are quickly converting into local fiat on the open market. Talk is also starting to pick up in Bitcoin circles that big players might be considering taking some profits from their early entries and mining profitability is starting to get stressed at these prices. If some miners decide to shut down creating less competition in the space, it would just cause another wave of media coverage of how this ecosystem is too concentrated and can be manipulated by a few actors.

    Looking strictly at the price it is starting to resemble a classic bubble aftermath with all the typical signs and if the price can’t reverse soon, the chart indicates the entrance into the “Fear” stage later this year.


    Bubble-Phases

    It is also following movements of what silver has done over the last 3 years to a tee just at a much faster pace as you can see in the following chart.

    SilverBTC

    At this point however, it is more likely that Bitcoin will becomes the guide to what happens in the Precious Metals space but we are looking at a new frontier. We all know that Gold & Silver will not go to 0 and unlike what most Gold-Bugs still believe, the days of using gold to settle global transactions are long behind us. It’s just two impractical in this fast pace environment of the 21st centaury. Bitcoin however, still has potential to reach both extremes, all confidence can be lost in the blink of an eye or it can become the dominant from of global transaction settlement.

    The Month Ahead

    The future is looking tough for Bitcoin, not much positives to point to in the charts. A lot of resistance overhead starting at the $500 mark then $530, $560 (base of the descending triangle), $630, $650 and $750. Not much at all holding the price up technically. We have the $440-450 support area and then open air down to $340-380 zone. Look for news to help reverse the downward price trend but as it stands, expect more downside over the next month. Any signs of a swing in momentum to the bull side would start after the price can re-capture $500 and turn it back into a support zone.

    BitstampDaily_Sep9


    The Week Ahead

    Looking at an intraday chart we are sitting right underneath a short-term descending triangle that was broken to the downside last night. Today’s action has resolved the over sold condition indicated by the RSI and in textbook fashion the price rebounded back to the breakdown zone of $470-475 and immediately reversed. There is always a possibility that today’s low of $456 is a higher low compared to $442 in August and price is ready to reverse, but we do not yet have any evidence of this.

    BitstampHourly_Sep9

    Conclusion

    A reversal in trend cannot be anticipated, there need to be clear signs and at the moment they are few and far between. Everything points to a little more downside on the horizon but if mass adoption is to come it can change everything around very quickly. Until we can confirm a higher high, which has not occurred in months we will remain short and intermediate term bearish.  Continue to watch that $440-450 zone for a double bottom and perhaps divergence in the RSI & MACD vs the August Lows. We will wait until the price pushes back above $500 before focusing on potential upside.

    Reference Point: Tuesday September 9,  1:00 am ET, Bitstamp Price $468


  • BitLicense 2014 vs IntLicense 1994: What if this had passed 20 years ago?

    “We have sought to strike an appropriate balance that helps protect consumers and root out illegal activity – without stifling beneficial innovation”

    We should all be fortunate that the statement above was ‘never’ made by Ron Brown; the former chairman of the Department of Commerce, which oversees the National Telecommunications and Information Administration.

    Those were the words of the Benjamin M. Lawsky on July 17, 2014 in a statement introducing the proposed BitLicense regulation. But what if 20 years earlier on July 17, 1994 a document known as the IntLicense was released to the world for a 45 day review period by the public?

    Would the majority of Americans know how to reply? How different would our world look today? Would we still have companies like Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Google and countless other forms of technology we now take for granted. 1994 was a very critical time for the Internet as the first browser was just about to make its official press release on October 13th and people were just starting to get the feel for the AOL Instant Messenger and this radical new technology called email.

    Over the last month, the comparisons keep being made of how this could have been the Internet itself that is being stifled of innovation. It’s understandable that no one want’s to read another 35 pages, but just think about all the technology that you take for granted today and you should recognize that the BitLicense is as detrimental to growth as the theoretical IntLicense described here would have been to the Internet.

    By simply changing a few definitions “Virtual Currencies” to “Virtual Communication”, “Anti-Money Laundering” to “Anti-Anonymous Communication”, “Compliance” to “Copyright”, and adding one more to distinguish “Virtual Communication” from “Virtual Commerce”, we start to the get the picture of what the world might have been!

    What if every Blogger had to hire a “copyright” expert and every time you wanted to post a comment on-line, your identity had to be confirmed, where would we be today? Here are a few sections of the IntLicense proposal:

    Section 200.3 License
    (a)       License required. No Person shall, without a license obtained from the superintendent as provided in this Part, engage in any Virtual Currency [Communication] Business Activity.
    (b)       Unlicensed agents prohibited. Each Licensee is prohibited from conducting any Virtual Currency [Communication] Business Activity through an agent or agency arrangement when the agent is not a Licensee.
    ———————–
    Section 200.15 Anti-money laundering [Anti-anonymous communication] program
    All values in United States dollars referenced herein must be calculated using the methodology to determine the value of Virtual Currency [Commerce] in Fiat [Government] Currency that was approved by the Department under this Part.
    (a)       Each Licensee shall conduct an initial risk assessment that will consider legal, compliance [copyright], financial, and reputational risks associated with the Licensee’s activities, services, customers, counterparties, and geographic location and shall establish, maintain, and enforce an anti-money laundering [anti-anonymous communication] program based thereon. The Licensee shall conduct additional assessments on an annual basis, or more frequently as risks change, and shall modify its anti-money laundering [anti-anonymous communication] program as appropriate to reflect any such changes.
    ————————–
    Section 200.19 Consumer protection
    (1)       virtual currency [communication] is not legal tender [speech], is not backed [endorsed] by the government, and accounts and value balances [controversial statements] are not subject to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation [1st Amendment Protections] or Securities Investor Protection Corporation protections [4th Amendment Protections against diary and ‘private papers’ searches];
    —————————-

    Unlike Government agencies, which create inflation but clearly do not acknowledge its existence, this document does since $10,000 today sure isn’t what it was back in 1994:

    (2)       Reports on transactions. When a Licensee is involved in a transaction or series of transactions for the receipt, exchange, conversion, purchase, sale, transfer, or transmission of Virtual Currency [Communication for commerce], in an aggregate amount exceeding the United States dollar value of $10,000 [$6,218] in one day, by one Person, the Licensee shall notify the Department, in a manner prescribed by the superintendent, within 24 hours.

    It’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle as has recently been proven with the constant attempts to pass Internet control bills like PIPA, SOPA and CISPA, but we all know the Government will just keep on trying. It looks clear that this time around the mistakes of letting technology roam free are being corrected before the ball starts rolling. If the process isn’t slowed down by regulation and licensing, government agents won’t be able to form a discussion committee fast enough to keep up with the most recent wave of MIT and Harvard dropouts looking to be the next Zuckerberg or Jobs before him.

    Here is the IntLicense in its entirety, hopefully it will be in the hands of all those that helped create it, and they see what they are trying to do within this new world of technological and financial freedom!

    Donation Address: 1A2SReWAxEEZ5mFcvVNmqZM9zkx9cg1kWy

    IntLicense 1994 (drafted from BitLicense 2014) by Tone Vays


  • Interview With Freedom’s Phoenix – Bitcoin vs Government

    Here is the link to the radio show website, this was a 2 hour chat mostly focused on how we can get more bitcoin adoption and less government interference in the free market.

    Recent guests include Cody Wilson, Jeffery Tucker, Davi Barker, Blake Anderson, Peter Schiff and many other prominent names. You can catch all of them on their Archive page.

    2014-08-15 Hour 1 Tone Vays from Ernest Hancock on Vimeo.

    2014-08-15 Hour 2 Tone Vays from Ernest Hancock on Vimeo.