• Tag Archives Bitcoin Analysis
  • Bitcoin’s Time Analysis & Significance of August 11th, 2017

    When I started being a content creator in the Crypto Space over 3 years ago, all my articles were being published on CoinTelegraph (besides this website) and I decided to do a different kind of analysis on August 31st, 2014. The Article was titled “Intro to Time” and it had one of my favorite art covers to date:

    The article also featured the table above with key dates in the life-cycle of Bitcoin and while I myself did not take the Mid June 2015 date seriously, I do not plan to make the same mistake again Mid August 2017.

    Background:
    I have been a fan of Martin Armstrong’s work for a long time and even attended several WEC conferences over the last few years. I give him lots of credit for helping me understand Global Economics, Capital Flows and the concept of time being Cyclical and NOT linear. So just as a thought experiment, I decided to apply the most basic idea from Martin’s writing to Bitcoin. this concept that since time is cyclical we can represent the number Pi in terms of days (or years) and apply it to get some useful dates to keep an eye on in the future.

    The Math:
    In it’s most basic form, taking the number Pi = 3.1416 and giving it a multiplier of 1000 = 3,141.6 days. Converting this number to years by dividing it by 365.25 = 8.6012 years.
    NOTE: I used 8.61 years in the original article as I divided by 365 instead
    So at this point 8.6 years represents one full cycle and the most critical day for Bitcoin going forward (more on this later). We can also consider multiples of this day as slightly less significant, which is why in the 2014 article I was looking at half and quarter cycles to find dates of significance to keep an eye on (more on this later as well)
    This cycle needs to be applied from some starting point. While several options were available like Publication of the Bitcoin White Paper and the first popular financial transaction giving Bitcoin a price, the most logical one seemed to be the generation of the Genesis Block on January 3rd 19:05:05 UTC Time.

    NOTE: At this point I would like to thank Mark B for providing a Python script in order to remove all rounding errors when determining the date. The code will be at the bottom of the articles for those interested in running it on your own.

    Using this code we are provided with a a key date August 11th, 2017 which is exactly 8.6012 years from the Genesis Block. This was the date I was referencing as “Something Big” on 2017.62 in the Original Article back in 2014.

    Significance:
    Back in August 2014 the price of bitcoin was around $500 coming down from the $1200 all time high but rising from the low in the $300’s it made 3 month’s prior. It was impossible to tell if the next 3/4 cycle due to arrive on June 16th 2015 was going to coincide with a price low or a high. As the year 2015 began, it was much more clear that it was going to be a low. That January I did an interview with Jeff Berwick of Anarchast Podcast and I explained how the price point of $160 that Bitcoin fell to just a few weeks prior met my bearish target, but it came 6 months too early and I was hopping to see that price in the summer time instead to meet the June 16 key date. In that video I also talked about how Europe will be the driving force to put Bitcoin back in the spotlight with their Bank closures. While I knew that Greece was the one in big financial trouble, and I focused on Greece a month later when presenting at Jeff Berwick’s Anarchapulco Conference, during the interview I talked about Italy as the example. To this day I credit the change in Bitcoin price trend from an 18 month Bear Market to a Bull Market to have taken place in June 2015. Here is a June 16th Reuters headline “Bitcoin surges as Grexit worries mount” before the inevitable banking shutdown on Sunday June 28th 2015.

    I never took the June 16th, 2015 date seriously at the time and after I missed my perfect entry to load up on Bitcoin in the $100-250 price range, I swore I would not ignore the next critical date (now 1 month away at time of writing) and this date is set to be way more significant as it’s a full cycle vs quarter cycle like the last one. After the June 2015 period was clearly a low, I spent the last two years talking about how Bitcoin should reach its price high in August 2017. But just like in 2015 where the low came a few months early we potentially had the high come a few months early as well as bitcoin has now pulled back almost 25% from its all time high of just under $3,000 first week of June. Bitcoin moves quickly and with the SegWit2x vs UASF resolutions, there is still plenty of unknowns between now and inevitable dates in August that will shape the Bitcoin ecosystem for years to come:

    Possible Outcomes:
    So assuming that this date is actually significant, what are some of the things to expect from knowing it. At this point it must be pointed out that while this type of time analysis has occasionally been able to identify price highs or low to the day (Feb 27th, 2007), it does not necessarily have to coincide with a price reversal. In fact, if it always coincided with a price reversal (assuming these dates are even useful), everyone would have been a billionaire trader long ago.
    A. Market becomes very optimistic on Bitcoin scaling into Aug 11th: This outcome is starting to seem unlikely. When the price was rising between April & June it looked like there was nothing stopping it and SegWit activation via UASF was going to be a sell event from the $3,000-$4,000 price range making August 11th (or near there) a price high.
    B. Market becomes very pessimistic on Bitcoin scaling into Aug 11th: This outcome is starting to become more likely. If SegWit2x continues to be a clown show shacking market confidence, we could see continued price drops into uncertainty and a potential price low as SegWit Activates 1st week of August bringing back set confidence. In this case price could reverse around Aug 11th from a range of $1,200 – $1,800 setting off a new Bull Run to the next key cycle date in 2.15 years (or at least till the Hard Fork drums of SegWit2x start beating)
    C. Price is NOT trending into first week of August and remains choppy: In this case we will be looking for this date to correspond to some kind of resolution on SegWit. It may be when the Ecosystem realizes UASF has succeeded or the day people like me admit defeat of the movement. It might be a day on which SegWit2x causes an accidental Hard Fork making Bitcoin Unusable, the day UASF side of the Chain Split gets a PoW change, or some other critical event. In either case, events on or around this date will shape the future trend of Bitcoin (from adoption to price in either direction) just like the Greek Banking Shutdown did around the last key date.
     D. This is all nonsense and completely irrelevant: Yes, I am fully aware that this sounds like an Astrological reading of the Bitcoin horoscope.

    Errors:
    At this time I would like knowledge the fact that this is completely speculative and i’m not really using Martin Armstrong’s supper computer for date generations. The math could be very different when done by a professional. In addition, the dates in questions would have been different if way we used the publication of the White Paper Instead…. I wonder if it would have fell on August 1st :).

    Here is the python code thanks to a loyal followers of my content, enjoy:

    ———————————————————————————————–
    import time
    import datetime
    from math import pi
    genesis_datetime = ‘2009-01-03 19:15:05’
    date_fmt = ‘%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S’
    seconds_in_a_day = 60 * 60 * 24
    cyclic_period_seconds = 1000 * pi * seconds_in_a_day
    def date2epoch(date_str):
        return time.mktime(datetime.datetime.strptime(date_str, date_fmt).timetuple())
    def epoch2date(epoch_time):
        return time.strftime(date_fmt, time.localtime(epoch_time))
    genesis_timestamp = date2epoch(genesis_datetime)
    print(‘Cyclic period (days): %s’ % (cyclic_period_seconds / seconds_in_a_day))
    print(‘Genesis: %s’ % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp))
    print(‘One cyclic period after genesis: %s’ % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + cyclic_period_seconds))
    print(‘Two cyclic periods after genesis: %s’ % epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + 2 * cyclic_period_seconds))
    print(“—-“)
    for i in range(0, 41):
        frac = i / 4.0   # break down into quarter cycles
        print(“[%s + %s cycles]: %s” % (epoch2date(genesis_timestamp), frac, epoch2date(genesis_timestamp + frac * cyclic_period_seconds)))

    PS: my comments on this website are disable due to my inability to deal with spam on this medium. Please leave any comments on Twitter or YouTube:

    Tone Vays – Blockchain/Bitcoin Consultant & Traditional Derivatives Trader